Should you hit 16 against a dealer's 10?

Why

A dealer showing a 10 ends on 17 or better 77.0% of the time, after checking for blackjack. Your 16 beats none of those hands, so standing wins only when the dealer goes over 21: 23.0% of the time.

Hitting does better than standing, but most of the cards that help you are small, and anything from a 6 up breaks you. Surrender is the way out: you give up half your bet and keep the other half, which loses less over time than playing the hand. In the app's words, giving up half your bet loses less.

When the answer changes

Late surrender is the whole question here. At the app's table (six decks, the dealer hitting soft 17) the book surrenders 16 against a 9, 10 or ace; with one or two decks, against a 10 or an ace. Where it isn't offered, the book hits 16 against a 10 instead. That holds for every rule set the chart covers: one, two, six or eight decks, whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17.

Surrender is worth looking for. At six decks with the dealer hitting soft 17, the house keeps 0.53% played by the book with late surrender, and 0.62% without it.

The full basic strategy chart for six decks, dealer hits soft 17, with every other rule set a tap away.

The same chart without late surrender, where 16 against a 10 is a hit.

Questions